- BTC112,480+0.84%f +0.810%
- ETH4,312.60-1.38%f +0.320%
- SOL218.40+2.31%f +1.240%
- NVDA184.32+1.12%
- QQQ588.12+0.41%
- SPY652.30+0.27%
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- XAU2,478.40+0.36%
- US10Y3.92-0.51%
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Research & insights
Regime notes, strategy memos, risk write-ups and explainers from the desks, next to the market snapshot, the event calendar and the managers' monthly letters. No clickbait.
Rates cut priced, breadth thin: how the trend sleeves are positioned
The September cut is fully priced and the index sits at a high made by eleven names. The trend sleeves are long because the tape says so, not because the narrative does; the vol budget is what decides size, and it is currently at 92% of target.
- 6 Sept 2026NoteStablecoin basis: venue concentration is the only number that matters
A stablecoin basis book earns a few hundred basis points a year and can lose a venue overnight. The carry is the easy part; the 25% per-venue cap is the product. This week the book runs four venues at 21 to 24% each and the remainder in the custodian.
Aisha Rahman· Delta Atelier5 min3,234 readsStablecoin Basis BookDelta Neutral MM - 5 Sept 2026RiskTokenised gold: what the wrapper can and cannot do
The tokenised gold sleeve owns allocated bars through a wrapper that publishes a monthly vault attestation. The wrapper gives you daily liquidity, fractional size and an on-chain record. It does not give you the bar; it gives you a claim on a custodian who has the bar.
Kenji Mori· Mandala Digital Partners5 min3,738 readsTokenized GoldRWA Tokenized T-Bills - 4 Sept 2026RegimeSeptember regime: mixed, not risk-off
Funding on BTC remains modestly positive but the 30-day basis has compressed. We are not treating this as a risk-off flag.
Mira Chen· Harbor Key Digital6 min492 readsBTC Funding BasisUSD Cash-like - 3 Sept 2026EducationReading a factor table without fooling yourself
A factor table tells you where last month's return came from. It does not tell you where next month's will come from, and the desks that present it as if it did are selling you a story with decimals.
Meridian Systems· Foothill Systematic7 min3,834 readsQuant Multi-factor AsiaJapan Value Factor - 2 Sept 2026NoteNVDA sleeve: vol budget is the stop
The adaptive long sleeve cut exposure twice in August when 20-day realized vol cleared 42%. That is the product, not a failure of nerve.
Elena Wu· Tiger Pine Desk5 min1,788 readsAdaptive Long NVDA - 2 Sept 2026NoteCovered calls are a choice about which returns to sell
The overwrite sleeve collected 0.9% of premium in August and gave back 0.4% of upside on the two days the names gapped. Net 0.5%, which is the month working as designed: income in exchange for the top of the distribution.
Elena Wu· Tiger Pine Desk4 min1,510 readsAAPL / MSFT Covered CallAdaptive Long NVDA - 28 Aug 2026RiskMarket-making capacity is a feature
We will not grow the MM vault past the inventory band. Additional subscriptions sit in cash-like until capacity opens.
Aisha Rahman· Delta Atelier4 min2,986 readsDelta Neutral MMOrbit Liquidity Provider (OLP) - 25 Aug 2026RegimeFunding regime map: eleven weeks positive, and what breaks it
BTC funding has printed positive for eleven straight weeks, the longest run since 2024. Carry books across the platform are full. That is the setup in which a single negative print forces everyone to flatten together, so every basis vault on Orbit has a capacity cap and a 24-hour flatten rule.
Mira Chen· Harbor Key Digital6 min2,377 readsBTC Funding BasisPerp Funding NeutralFunding Harvest - 21 Aug 2026RiskETH basis sleeve: post-mortem on the squeeze
The book was crowded on the same side of the basis. When perp premium flipped, hedges paid more than the carry earned.
Silas Ong7 min3,656 readsETH Perp Basis - 20 Aug 2026RiskSelling volatility into a data week: the rule we do not break
The vol sleeve is flat through CPI and FOMC, every time, whatever the premium on offer. In August that cost roughly 0.3% of monthly carry. In March it would have saved 4%.
Aisha Rahman· Delta Atelier4 min4,452 readsOptions Vol Harvest - 18 Aug 2026NoteAsia factors: value paid, momentum lagged
Low-vol and value contributed; residual momentum was a drag. The 8% vol target kept the sleeve inside its drawdown budget.
Meridian Systems· Foothill Systematic5 min4,317 readsQuant Multi-factor AsiaHSI Overlay - 15 Aug 2026EducationLockups explained: why the day count is the product
A lockup is the time a manager needs to unwind without selling into a squeeze on your behalf. A three-day lockup on an index-ETF sleeve means the book can be flattened in one session with a day either side; a fourteen-day lockup on a staking book means unstaking queues.
Jonah Vale· Northshore Quant5 min3,651 readsHK Tech TrendQQQ / SPY Trend OverlayOrbit Liquidity Provider (OLP) - 12 Aug 2026EducationWhat cash-like is not
Cash-like can lose small amounts on NAV noise, operational delay and smart-contract risk. It is not a bank deposit and not a guaranteed APR.
Kenji Mori· Mandala Digital Partners4 min561 readsUSD Cash-likeRWA Tokenized T-Bills - 10 Aug 2026NoteAlt momentum breadth: three names, not thirty
The basket holds three names because three is the number at which slippage on a $2M book stays under the edge. Thirty names would look diversified and trade like a single beta with worse fills.
Nova Park3 min1,650 readsAlt Momentum BasketSOL Momentum - 6 Aug 2026RiskETH trend desk: the stop that costs 2% a year and saves 20%
The 2 ATR trailing stop fired four times on the ETH sleeve this year, three of them whipsaws that cost about 0.5% each. The fourth was the June break, where it took us out 18% above the low.
Rex Holt4 min933 readsETH Trend DeskBTC Trend Desk - 5 Aug 2026EducationCopy sizing: amount vs ratio
Fixed amount caps the dollar risk; fixed ratio inherits the leader's leverage path. Most allocators should start with amount plus a portfolio stop.
Harbor Key Digital5 min1,445 readsBTC Trend DeskAdaptive Long NVDA - 30 Jul 2026NoteSOL momentum is a satellite, full stop
If this sleeve is more than a mid-single-digit share of NAV, you are not allocating — you are gambling on my path.
Nova Park3 min2,465 readsSOL Momentum
August letter: +11.2% for the month, two trades, one stop-out at −4.1%, one runner. Hit rate this year is 46%; the average winner is 2.6x the average loser. That ratio is the product, the hit rate is the tax.
OLP August letter: +1.9% for the month, 96% of it spread capture and liquidation discount, 4% funding. The 1.5% inventory cap was never touched; the widest intraday inventory was 1.1% on Aug 14. Depositor count crossed 2,700. No manager cut and no lockup change: 3 days.
August letter: +1.7% for the month, spread capture 78% of gross, hedge cost 22%. One kill-switch event (Aug 14), no weekend event exposure. Orbit verification: documents submitted July 30, review in progress.
August letter: +2.4% for the month. Staking 1.1%, funding paid −0.3%, basis 1.6%. Two upgrade pauses of 48 hours each. No unwinds during the basis compression, thanks to the lockup.
August letter: +2.9% for the month, 100% of days hedged, zero overnight event exposure through Jackson Hole. Capacity note: we will cap the vault at $22M. Above that our fills degrade and your carry goes to the venue, not to you.